War is brewing in Netbook processor land. The current king of the hill is the Intel Atom CPU based on the x86 instruction set, the same instruction set that is used in "full size" laptops and desktops. The only contender that Intel faced in the Netbook space up to now was the VIA Nano
But now a new contender has appeared: the Qualcomm Snapdragon processor based on the ARM instruction set. The current model is single core and runs at 1 Ghz, but the new models to be released this year should be dual-core and be able to run at up to 1.5 Ghz. This is powerful enough to run most of the applications that a Netbook is expected to deliver. Add to that the fact that the Qualcomm snapdragon ARM core can also include hardware HD video decoding as well as Bluethoot, Wifi and GPS wireless technologies and you already have a serious contender for the title of ultimate mobile processor. Now the killer blow for the Atom is that the Snapdragon processor should consumes much less power, not requires a fan and be half as expensive as the current Atom + chipset on offer from Intel. Ouch!
With these new generation offerings, the ARM architecture is ready to make the jump from devices like the iPhone or the Nokia N810 Internet Tablet
The disadvantage with ARM based processors like the snapdragon is that the full version of windows will not run on them. It is not that Microsoft doesn't want to make an ARM version of Windows, but because most drivers and applications for Windows are closed source, it is not possible for Microsoft to recompile them fro the ARM architecture. Since the main incentive for users to run Windows is to be able to run legacy or familiar applications (the OS itself is not that great) and that Windows for ARM would not do that there is little point. The Microsoft offering for ARM based processors is Windows CE and mobile, but these did never gain traction with consumers and frankly, sucks!
This means that on the software side much of the ARM action will be with Linux and it's derivatives like Google Android or Google ChromeOS! This is a field that Intel is trying to invade with it's Moblin platform: An x86 based Linux distribution optimized for Netbooks and portable devices that features very short boot times. Recently Novel announced that they will provide a SUSE distribution for x86 based Netbooks based on the Moblin standard. On the ARM side, Xandros has announced the availability of the same Linux distribution used with the first EEE PC for the ARM architecture, and canonical, the backers of Ubuntu, are currently porting the well known distribution to ARM. It is easier to port Linux applications to the ARM architecture because the source code is available, so a lot of the software only needs to be recompiled. Add to that the fact that a lot of the drivers are implemented in the Linux kernel and hardware support becomes a cinch.
What is my prediction? I think that the arrival of ARM based Netbooks will first split the market in two.
On one side we will have cheap, silent ARM based netbooks with long battery life but a reduced number of applications. These will probably focus on web access, music, video, GPS and basic productivity tools. Expect something like the original Xandros Linux distribution of the EEE PC and the Linpus lite distribution of the Acer Aspire One
On the other side we will have real "mini notebooks" with processors based on the Atom x86 architecture. These will feature full featured operating systems like Windows XP
What will happen next is open to conjecture. Either the ARM based Netbooks will gain full computer capabilities and displace the Atom based Netbooks, or Intel will reduce the price and power footprint of the Atom so much that it displaces the ARM Netbooks. It will depend a lot on the Linux OSes used with the ARM based Netbooks. If these offer a good enough experience and enough applications to make the users forget that they are not running Windows, ARM will probably win. If on the other hand these are half-assed experiments most users may decide that they prefer the full Windows experience after all, even at an increased price and with a shorter battery life
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1 comments:
"Since the main incentive for users to run Windows is to be able to run legacy or familiar applications (the OS itself is not that great) and that Windows for ARM would not do that there is little point. The Microsoft offering for ARM based processors is Windows CE and mobile, but these did never gain traction with consumers and frankly, sucks!"
The above quote is not exactly proof indicative of a tech journalist with an objective view, now is it?
Even if circumstances are such that these smartbooks aren't capable of running the complete and familiar x86 Windows, current Windows users will (absolutely) expect to see a familiar (Windows clone) desktop look and feel on any product that has the clamshell form factor. That's something which the various Linux developers seem to be absolutely loathe to provide. Rather, they want to foist their queer ideas of how a desktop should be on the consumer.
Also, although most of the smartbook prototypes are shown with dual hinge designs, most are planned to be mono hinged to facilitate touchscreen tablet functionality. This convertible capability, while it really expands the usefulness of the hardware, creates an quandry for any one desktop model. That being, in each mode a completely different desktop shell is required. A traditional Windows classic desktop being appropriate in netbook (clamshell) mode is not only appropriate but expected. However, as soon as the hardware is configured for tablet/touchscreen mode, the traditional desktop shell is woefully inadequate. At such times, the Android or WinCE are most appropriate and also pretty much likely to be expected by the consumer. Ergo, a separate (switchable on the fly) desktop shell is essential to make these products really shine.
I've had Tablets since they first appeared. The Xp desktop in laptop mode is great. That same interface, when in tablet mode is suboptimal at its very best. When I envision these smartbooks with dual shells they really are quite appealing. I won't be buying another one if both mode try to use the same interface.
Food for thought.
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